On December 1, 2009, a Russian diplomat declared that Russia would join any consensus on more sanctions against Tehran. „If there is a consensus on Iran sanctions, we will not stand aside. [...] We will be thinking about sanctions but this is not an issue of the next few hours or weeks. We would rather have Iran cooperating more openly and consistently with the IAEA and showing clear steps to lift concerns […] than introducing sanctions against Iran,“ said the Russian diplomatic source.[5]

In September 2009, Russia’s president Dmitry Medvedev said that sanctions were seldom productive but sometimes ”inevitable”.[6] However, shortly after these revelations, foreign ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko said: “This language of sanctions, it is not our language. It has already been said many times.”[7]

In October 2009, Russian Prime minister Vladimir Putin has warned Western powers that they will not gain anything by trying to intimidate Tehran.[8] “Sanctions in relation to Iran are hardly possible in the near future,” Sergei Prikhodko, the Kremlin’s top foreign policy aide, said.[9]

In November 2009 Russia and China both supported a resolution drawn by the IAEA denouncing Iran’s nuclear weapons development program. The IEAE voted for a resolution calling for an immediate freeze on nuclear enrichment in Iran.[10]

However, both Russia and China have historically negated the imposition of new sanctions on Iran although Medvedev hinted that the Russian position might shift due to Tehran's disclosure its secret uranium enrichment site near Qom.[11] Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has been vocally and highly critical of such steps in the past.[12]  In his meeting with Clinton, Foreign Minister Lavrov said Russia was "very reserved" about seeking further sanctions: "Threats of sanctions and threats of pressure in the current situation are, in our opinion, counterproductive," he said.[13]

Russia has the strongest ties with Tehran of any world power. Its capacity to provide technical help for the Iranian nuclear drive is seen by some experts as giving it an unmatched power of leverage in Tehran.[14]

Lavrov said that for the moment it would be wrong to talk about a fourth round of UN Security Council sanctions on Iran.[15] He added that sanctions could only be used if diplomacy and politics fail and this could not be said in the case of Iran.[16] 

Russia is a permanent member of the UN Security Council, allowing it to veto any sanctions resolutions. Russia now seems to be placing itself as an arbiter in the dispute between Iran and the West.[17]

Uranium deal with Iran

A deal drawn by the IAEA and approved by Western governments in Geneva in September 2009 suggested that Iran would export a stockpile of its low-enriched uranium to Russia for refinement for a reactor in Tehran which makes medical isotopes. In October 2009, Iran demanded changes, challenging the basis of the agreement between the US, France and Russia.[18]

Russia meddling in Iran

Russia has a key role to play in encouraging Iran to comply with international demands. On September 7, 2009, Israel’s Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Moscow and reassured the Russian leadership that Israel would not launch unilateral pre-emptive strikes against Iranian nuclear installations – on the condition that Moscow promises not to equip Iran with the S-300 system, an offensive missile capability that could deliver nuclear warheads.[19]

In October 2009, Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu handed over a list and evidence to Moscow, showing that Russian scientists have been helping Iran to develop a nuclear bomb. Apparently Russian companies have also supplied material that has been used by Iran in the production of ballistic missiles.[20]

Overview

Russian-Iranian ties are being tested: Moscow is concerned over Iran’s nuclear weapons development program and Iran is concerned over big business deals with Russia that have been subject to political delays. Iran has accused Russia of deliberately delaying work and progress with regard to the Bushehr nuclear facility. Moscow denied that this was politically motivated.[21]

Russia’s relations with Iran are based on realpolitik and energy. The Russian-Iranian relationship is anchored firmly in the respective countries’ perceptions of national self-interest and the strengthening of energy ties.

For Russia, Iran is a regional power and an important trade partner. Russia needs Iran for arms sales, as well as for maintaining the security of Russia’s southern borders; Iran needs Russia for military equipment, energy security and political protection at the U.N. and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Diplomatic Relations

On 16 June 2009, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was the first to send his official congratulations to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on his “re-election” as president of Iran.[22] 

In June 2009, Ahmadinejad’s first official trip abroad as Iran’s “re-elected” President was to Russia, which Medvedev described as a positive symbol which allowed for “hope for progress in bilateral relations”, describing the controversy over the Iranian elections as an “internal affair” in which the Russian government did not see fit to intervene.[23] 

On this trip in June 2009, Ahmadinejad attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit at Yekaterinburg, to which Iran was an ‘observer state’. The organization represents a loose-knit group of central Asian countries, which cooperate on a number of economic, cultural and security issues and the presidents of all of the member states congratulated Ahmadinejad on his ‘electoral victory’.[24]   

 Yet the G8, of which Russia is a member, called for an immediate cessation of violence in Iran following the chaos of the disputed elections in June 2009 and called upon Iran to find a peaceful solution to the political crisis.[25] However on July 14, 2009, the Russian foreign ministry announced that Russia would not agree to tougher sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program, in exchange for a new nuclear arms cut deal with the United States.[26] 

 Russia has engaged in military dealings with Iran, signing an ongoing contract in 2007 to deliver Russian S-300 air defense systems to Iran, the latest models of which have a range of up to roughly 120 miles and can intercept aircraft and ballistic missiles at altitudes of over 16 miles.[27]  

In June 2009, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called upon his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to prevent the completion of the arms deal. The Russian government has already postponed delivery of missile defense systems to Iran due to Western pressure, yet the Russian government has recognized Russia’s economic need for arms sales profits.[28] 

Iran and Russia have engaged in multilateral dealings, most notably at the Caspian Sea States Summits. At these summits, the two countries have expanded their cooperation on energy issues and called for increased vigilance against Western influence in the Caspian region and cooperation between the Caspian littoral states.[29] 

Russia has extended its relations with Iran into the field of nuclear technology, helping the development of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear complex [30] despite having voted in favor of UN sanctions against Iran due to its illegal nuclear program., According to Michael Fenenbock, founder of the organization ‘DeNuke Iran’, Russia has supplied blueprints for Iran’s development of a heavy water nuclear reactor and Russian companies have provided the Iranians with uranium mining and milling technology.  

In July 2009, American President Barack Obama, on his trip to Russia, tried to encourage the Russian government to persuade Iran to abandon its nuclear programme by suggesting that if this were to happen, the US would halt its Eastern European missile defense initiative.[31] Medvedev had already stated in March 2009, that while Moscow would cooperate with Washington over the Iranian issue, there would be no “quid pro quo”-deal with the US over missile defense and Iran.[32]  

Economic relations

In August 1995, Russia and Iran signed a 10-year contract under which Russia would supply nuclear fuel for the Bushehr plant. [33]  Some Western experts pointed out that the design of the Bushehr reactor allowed it to make weapons-grade nuclear materials. Under the contract terms, Russia was to train the staff of the power plant which meant that Russia transferred know-how and expertise thus accelerating Iran's nuclear research.[34] In January 2008, Iran received the final shipment of uranium fuel from Russia for the Bushehr nuclear power plant.[35] 

The Iranians have given the Russians sizeable sums to support development of the Bushehr nuclear reactors, and have committed at least $700 million for conventional armaments. In return, Russia has blocked international sanctions tied to Iran’s nuclear program, and supported the Iran-India oil pipeline.[36] On December 25, Iran signed a contract with Russia for the delivery of advanced S-300 air defense missile systems to Iran. An advanced version of the S-300 missile system, called S-300PMU1 (SA-20 Gargoyle), has a range of over 150 kilometers (about 100 miles) and can intercept ballistic missiles and aircraft at low and high altitudes, making this system an effective tool for warding off possible air strikes on Iran. Russia earlier supplied Iran with 29 Tor-M1 air defense systems under a $700-million contract signed in late 2005.[37] The work at Bushehr is worth $800 million to Russia and provides profitable and useful employment for approximately 1,500 CIS citizens on site with a further 20,000 employed inside Russia itself, keeping 300 Russian firms in business.[38]  The missile defense system, which Russia agreed to sell Iran in 2007 is a deal worth $700 million.[39]

Russia still failed to fulfill to deliver the S-300 air defense missiles to Tehran. In October 2009 Iran complained Moscow was now six months late on delivery.[40] Alaedin Borujurdi, head of the Iranian parliament’s national security committee, warned Russia that any further delay in selling the S-300 missiles to Tehran would “seriously damage” relations between the countries.[41][42]

In 2005, Russia was Iran’s seventh largest trading partner, with 5.33% of all exports to Iran originating from Russia.[43] The value of arms transfer agreements between Iran and Russia increased from $300 million between 1998 and 2001 to $1.7 billion between 2002 and 2005. 

After China and India, Iran is the third largest buyer of Russian arms: between 1991 and 2002, Iran bought some $3.6 billion worth of Russian military equipment, making up 54% of Iran’s total arms imports during the period.[44] 

Iranian reports have announced that the two countries were discussing 130 economic projects worth over $100 billion and aimed at boosting bilateral trade from the current $2 billion to $200 billion in the next 10 years. Russia and Iran hold between them about 20 per cent of the global oil reserves and 42 per cent of natural gas. Russian oil and gas companies are already involved in Iranian hydrocarbon projects, and at its December 13, 2007 meeting in Moscow, the Russian-Iranian trade commission discussed plans to set up a joint gas venture to explore deposits in the Persian Gulf and Central Asia.[45] 

On February 20, 2008, Gazprom Chairman Alexei Miller held talks in Tehran with Iranian Oil Minister Gholam-Hossein Nozari. While little was released about the meeting, the pair agreed to increase Russian involvement in developing Iran's massive South Pars and North Kish offshore gas fields in the Persian Gulf. They also agreed to Russia laying oil and natural gas pipelines. Further agreement was apparently reached on mutual cooperation in the oil and gas sectors in the Caspian Sea. Gazprom also agreed to build a gas reservoir in Iran as well as a refinery in Armenia. Moving swiftly ahead, the two sides agreed to hold expert-level meetings and sign agreements within the next two months.[46] 

On May 13, 2008, Ahmadinejad said he thought relations with Moscow would continue to develop following the inauguration of Dmitri Medvedev as Russian president May 7.[47] On April 30, 2008, National Security Council Acting Secretary Valentin Sobolev said: “[...] Russia confirms the principles of relations [with Iran] and its policy doesn’t depend on who is in power today."[48] 

On July 13, 2008, the Chief Executive of Gazprom, Alexei Miller, met with Ahmadinejad and signed an agreement to develop Iranian oil and gas fields. Iran, according to the agreement, offered Gazprom an extended package for the development of oil and gas fields; construction of refineries; transfer of oil from the Caspian Sea to the Sea of Oman; development of Iran's North Azadegan oil field; exchange of technology and experience; and the possible participation of Gazprom in the planned pipeline between Iran, India and Pakistan. The accord also includes the future formation of a joint company between the two countries, for cooperation in oil and gas.[49] 

In October 2008, Russia and Iran, along with Qatar, announced the formation of a new ‘Opec-style’ cartel which would control 60% of the world’s gas supplies, creating fears that prices would rise and increasing the Western suspicion that Russia and Iran would use energy to pursue political goals.[50] Russia appears keen on directing Iran’s gas exports to Asia while maintaining its own monopoly over the European market.[51] 

In December 2008, Russia and Iran signed a series of protocols to boost two-way trade in 2009, foreseeing cooperation in banking, transportation, investment and other joint venture fields.[52] 

Gazprom is now poised to begin development of two or three additional blocks of South Pars, the world's largest gas condensate deposit. The massive South Pars project consists of 24 phases of development and by 2014 is projected to produce 751 million cubic meters per day. Gazprom's agreement with Iran reportedly includes exploration, development, transportation, processing and marketing.[53] 

Iran has announced a massive rearmament program, spending $1 billion per year over the next 20-25 years. At the current rate of expenditure this could amount to $300 million per year which, spread over 25 years, would mean Iran would import Russian weaponry worth $7.5-$8 billion at current prices. With Russia's arms exports running at around $5bn a year, this is a market, which the Russian government, and its military industry, would not want to lose.[54] 

References:

[1] „Russia says Iran sanctions ‚more realistic’,“ Washington TV Online, February 10, 2010, http://televisionwashington.com/floater_article1.aspx?lang=en&t=1&id=17620

[2] „Barack Obama wants Iran sanctions in weeks, Russia gets tough,“ Reuters, February 10, 2010, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/Barack-Obama-wants-Iran-sanctions-in-weeks-Russia-gets-tough/articleshow/5554102.cms

[3] Karimi, Nasser; Dareini, Ali Akbar: „Iran claims new success in uranium enrichment,“ Associated Press, February 11, 2010, http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100211/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iran_nuclear

[4] Karimi, Nasser; Dareini, Ali Akbar: „Iran claims new success in uranium enrichment,“ Associated Press, February 11, 2010, http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100211/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iran_nuclear

[5] Shchedrov, Oleg: „Russia shifts stance on Iran, Ahmadinejad defiant,“ Reuters, December 1, 2009, http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSGEE5B023C20091201

[6] Borger, Julian: „China maintains opposition to Iran sanctions ahead of crucial meeting,“ The Guardian, September 24, 2009, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/sep/24/china-iran-nuclear-sanctions

[7] „UN close to new sanctions on Iran, France says,“ BBC Online, December 11, 2009, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8406717.stm

[8] „Kremlin says sanctions against Iran unlikely,“ Reuters, October 28, 2009, http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE59R2IW20091028

[9] „Kremlin says sanctions against Iran unlikely,“ Reuters, October 28, 2009, http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE59R2IW20091028

[10] „Russia, China back U.S. on Iran resolution,“ United Press International, November 27, 2009, http://www.upi.com/Top_News/International/2009/11/27/IAEA-resolution-rebukes-Iran-over-facility/UPI-71161259324813/

[11] Lee, Matthew: „Clinton To Press Russia On Iran, Arms Control,“ Associated Press, October 11, 2009, http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jiyDzWt6bcYiU4B_0XWtbXaq74
awD9B9FT500

[12] Dougherty, Jill: „Clinton to meet Medvedev for wide-ranging talks,“ CNN Online, October 13, 2009, http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/10/12/us.russia.clinton.medvedev/index.html

[13] „Don’t pressure Iran, says Russia,“ BBC Online, October 13, 2009, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8303517.stm

[14] Williams, Stuart: „Obama bids for Russian help on Iran,“ Agence France Presse, November 14, 2009, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jB1iIeTXKscLXBWrVrae-fRTaU0g

[15] Carmichael, Lachlan; Williams, Stuart: „Clinton tells Russia no Iran sanctions yet,“ Agence France Presse, October 13, 2009, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5h7omdXc161DYGekHhhZdzsB2-Yxg

[16] „US, Russia rule out imminent sanctions on Iran,“ Reuters, October 13, 2009, http://www.indianexpress.com/news/us-russia-rule-out-imminent-sanctions-on-iran/528491/

[17] Levy, Clifford J.: „Russia Says Sanctions Against Iran Are Unlikely,“ The New York Times, September 10, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/11/world/europe/11nuke.html?_r=1

[18] Philp, Catherine: „Iran demands changes to deal with the West on nuclar ambitions,“ Times Online, October 30, 2009, http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article6896257.ece

[19] Pabst, Adrian: „Russia can sway Iran’s nuclear ambitions,“ The Guardian, September 25, 2009, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/sep/25/russia-iran-nuclear

[20] „Israel hands over list of Russian scientist helping Iran nuke operation to Moscow,“ Thaindian, October 4, 2009, http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/world-news/israel-hands-over-list-of-russian-scientist-helping-iran-nuke-operation-to-moscow_100255888.html

[21] Scott Peterson: „Iran nuclear program faces setback from Russian reactor delay,“ Christian Science Monitor, November 16, 2009, http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2009/1116/p06s19-wome.html

[22] „Russia, China congratulate Ahmadinejad on vote win,“ Reuters, June 16, 2009, http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE55F0YA20090616

[23] „Russia, China congratulate Ahmadinejad on vote win,“ Reuters, June 16, 2009, http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE55F0YA20090616

[24] Harding, Luke: „Mahmoud Ahmadinejad packs up his troubles,“ The Guardian, June 16, 2009, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jun/16/iran-ahmadinejad-russia-summit

[25] Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, June 26, 2009, http://www.esteri.it/MAE/EN/Sala_Stampa/ArchivioNotizie
/Approfondimenti/2009/06/20090626_G8Trieste.htm

[26] „Russia says no Iran sanctions for START deal-Ifax,“ Reuters, July 14, 2009, http://in.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idINIndia-41024320090714

[27] „Israel attempts to stop S-300 air defense supplies to Iran,“ RIA Novosti, June 29, 2009, http://en.rian.ru/mlitary_news/20090629/155382108.html

[28] „Netanyahu to Putin: Stop selling missiles to Iran,“ AlManar TV, June 29, 2009, http://www.almanar.com.lb/newssite/NewsDetails.aspx?id=92149&language=ar

[29] „Iran, Russia Call for Vigilance Against Foreign Interference in Caspian Issue,“ People’s Daily, August 30, 2001, http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200108/30/eng20010830_78815.html

[30] „IAEA divided on Iran Nuclear Issue,“ Chin aDaily, September 20, 2005, http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200509/20/eng20050920_209626.html

[31] Maddox, Bronwen: „Barack Obama’s deal puts pressure on Russia to help with Iran,“ Times, July 8, 2009, http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/bronwen_maddox/article6662802.ece

[32] http://www.nti.org/db/nisprofs/russia/exports/rusiran/react.htm

[33] http://www.nti.org/db/nisprofs/russia/exports/rusiran/react.htm

[34] Hmelik, Natalya: „Russia’s Special Relationship With Iran’s Mullahs,“ Global Politician, March 27, 2006, http://www.nti.org/db/nisprofs/russia/exports/rusiran/react.htm

[35] „Iran receives final shipment of uranium fuel from Russia for nuclear plant,“ The New York Times, February 8, 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/28/world/africa/28iht-iran.4.9553925.html

[36] Chorin, Ethan: „Mutually Assured Ambivalence,“ Center for Strategic and International Studies, May 3, 2008, http://csis.org/homepage?p=50

[37] „Russia to sell advanced air defense systems to Iran,“ RIA Novosti, December 26, 2007, http://en.rian.ru/world/20071226/94238985.html

[38] „Russian minister says Russia, Israel have settled differences over Hezbollah arms,“ Associated Press, October 20, 2006, http://www.nytimes.com/marketing/iht/search/?iht

[39] http://www.cfr.org/

[40] „Russia denies US ’trade off’ in Iran,“ Shanghai Daily, March 4, 2009, http://www.shanghaidaily.com/sp/article/2009/200903/20090304/article_393036.htm

[41] Williams, Stuart: „Obama bids for Russian help on Iran,“ Agence France Presse, November 14, 2009, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jB1iIeTXKscLXBWrVrae-fRTaU0g

[42] „Russia-Iran Relations Balancing on Nuclear Issue,“ November 9, 2009, Voice of America Online, http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/a-13-2009-11-09-voa4-69822607.html

[43] Interfax news agency reports

[44] Kenzhetayev, M.: „VTS Rossil so stranami Blizhnego Vostoka i Srednego Vostoka,“ Yadernyy Kontrol, N. 1 (71), Summer 2004. Vol. 10, p. 140

[45] http://www.cfr.org/

[46] Daly, John C. K.: „Analysis: Russia, others eye Iran ties,“ United Press International, February 29, 2008, http://www.upi.com/Science_News/Resource-Wars/2008/02/29/Analysis-Russia-others-eye-Iran-ties/UPI-87841204305764/

[47] „Iran’s president says ties with Russia set to grow further,“ RIA Novosti, May 13, 2008, http://en.rian.ru/world/20080513/107272696.html

[48] „Russia to Maintain Continuity in Relations with Iran,“ Kommersant, April 30, 2008, http://www.kommersant.com/p-12436/r_527/Iran_continuity/

[49] „Iran and Russia sign major oil deal,“ Media Line News Agency, July 14, 2008, http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1215330962516&pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull

[50] Macalister, Terry: „Russia, Iran and Qatar announce cartel that will control 60% of world’s gas supplies,“ The Guardian, October 22, 2008, http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/22/gas-russia-gazprom-iran-qatar

[51] Radyuhin, Vladimir: „Russia-Iran ties on the upswing,“ The Hindu, January 7, 2007, http://www.thehindu.com/2008/01/07/stories/2008010762321000.htm

[52] „Russia eyes trade rise with Iran in 2009,“ Mehr News Agency, December 26, 2008, http://www.payvand.com/news/08/dec/1277.html

[53] Radyuhin, Vladimir: „Russia-Iran ties on the upswing,“ The Hindu, January 7, 2007, http://www.thehindu.com/2008/01/07/stories/2008010762321000.htm

[54] http://www.cfr.org/