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Round up of Today’s International News
30/11/07
UK Minister: Iran Sanctions 'Pretty Weak'
Sanctions aimed at halting Iran's pursuit of a nuclear weapon are too weak, but major world powers - including the United States - have no plans for military intervention to curb Teheran's activities, a British minister said Friday. Kim Howells, the Foreign Office minister, told lawmakers that Britain hopes to win tighter UN and European Union action against Teheran over its disputed nuclear programme. Political directors from the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany will meet on the issue in Paris on Saturday, he said. Discussions will follow talks on Friday between Iran's top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, who Howells said would meet in London. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has urged tighter UN sanctions, proposing a specific targeting of Iran's oil and gas industry. But US officials have complained that Russia and China remain sceptical about the need for a third round of sanctions.
SNSC secretary leaves for London to meet Solana
Secretary of Supreme National Security Council Saeed Jalili left Tehran for London Thursday to hold talks with EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana. Jalili, heading a delegation, is scheduled to discuss Iran's nuclear programme with Solana on Friday. The new chief nuclear negotiator and Supreme Leader's Representative to the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations Ali Larijani held negotiations with Solana in Rome on October 23 and 24. Based on an agreement reached between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on August 21, the cases of plutonium, contamination in Karaj, uranium metal document and the P1 and P2 centrifuges have been closed. The IAEA Director-General Mohamed ElBaradei presented a report to the Board of Governors on November 15, saying Iran had had constructive and effective cooperation with the agency to remove the ambiguities regarding its peaceful nuclear activities.
British teacher at Khartoum court in teddy bear case
A British teacher accused of insulting Muslims after her class called a teddy bear Mohammed arrived on Thursday at the Khartoum courthouse where she is expected to face formal charges. British embassy representatives met Gillian Gibbons, 54, on her arrival from detention in Khartoum North and accompanied her into the courthouse. Court officers prevented reporters from entering the courtroom and said the session would be closed. Police escorted Gibbons, wearing a dark blue skirt and a black blazer, into the courthouse as a crowd of a few hundred pushed against a police cordon outside and riot police waited in a nearby car. Police allowed only one member of the defence team inside the small courtroom, with two rows of plastic and metal seats.
UK: North show gets to grips with Islam
It is known more for its cream teas than calls to prayer, but the spa town of Harrogate is the setting of a new reality show in which people are persuaded to live under Islamic conditions. Will the programme aid religious cohesion or create division? A CONTROVERSIAL reality TV show to be broadcast next month aims to challenge preconceptions about Muslims But the programme, which sees non-Muslims living under strict Sharia law for three weeks, could also reinforce some people’s intolerance towards Islam. One participant accused Imams featured in the three-part series of being prejudiced towards her and said she experienced “animosity” from them.
Ex-defence chiefs accuse British government of neglecting forces
Prime Minister Gordon Brown defended the government's treatment of soldiers on Friday, after five former British defense chiefs accused him of neglecting the armed forces. The retired military commanders charged Thursday that the Defense Ministry had put the lives of soldiers at risk with funding cuts. The officers were particularly insulted by Brown's decision in June to name Defense Secretary Des Browne responsible for Scotland in addition to handling the armed forces. "When you have got people who have been killed and maimed in the service of their government, and you put at the head of the shop someone who is part-time, that sends a very bad message," Admiral Lord Michael Boyce told British Broadcasting Corp. television on Friday. "They feel insulted, they feel that he is treating them with contempt," he said. Brown rejected the former chief of staff's charge, and said the military was receiving more funding.
Iran May Seek to Lure Europe with Gas
Iran wants to use its massive gas reserves to wield influence over Europe. But if offering to supply Europe with gas via a pipeline through Turkey doesn't work, then the Revolutionary Guards may resort to plan B. Iran is planning to leverage its massive gas reserves to increase its influence in Western Europe -- by fair means or foul. If selling gas to Europe doesn't work, then Iran's Revolutionary Guards may resort to violence in the worst-case scenario. According to intelligence sources in the Middle East, Iranian leaders are considering making an unusual offer to supply Europe with large quantities of natural gas. The gas would be supplied via the planned Nabucco pipeline, which will run from Azerbaijan to Austria via Turkey.
Iranian FM: Iran calls for broader co-op with Croatia
Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said on Tuesday that Tehran is willing to promote its cooperation with Croatia at international scenes. Mottaki made the remarks in a meeting with new Croatian Ambassador to Tehran, Esad Prohic, who submitted a copy of his credentials to the Iranian minister. The two discussed major bilateral and international developments during the meeting. Mottaki stressed the need for promotion of Tehran-Zagreb economic ties while referring to the existing commonalties between the two nations. Meanwhile, the Croatian ambassador said that Zagreb was willing to increase exchange of tourists between the two countries as that would lead to further expansion of bilateral ties.
The German Question over Iran
As a major supplier of industrial goods to Iran, Germany sits at the center of the nuclear debate. No more ticklish quandary awaits the next US president than Iran's nuclear ambitions – it splits Hillary Clinton from Barack Obama and makes GOP candidates squirm. In coming days, Iran will again be in the hot seat at the UN and many eyes will be focused on, of all nations, Germany. Why Germany? In the past year, the UN Security Council has twice ratcheted up economic sanctions on Iran for not suspending its uranium enrichment. That program, which now has with nearly 3,000 centrifuges whirling away, appears capable of producing sizable amounts of bomb-grade material within a year. Distrust of Iran's intentions remains high after it concealed its nuclear program for years and tapped the international black market to buy blueprints for turning uranium into warheads. And it doesn't help that its president threatens Israel. Germany sits at the center of this debate because it is Iran's second-largest provider of imported products, feeding vital technology to most of its industry.
German state elections force Merkel to take tougher stand on Turkey's EU membership
With four state elections in the horizon next year internal politics in Germany will once again be polluting relations with Ankara as German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats prepare to are stiffen their opposition to Turkey's bid to join the European Union. Merkel has until now called for Turkey to be awarded EU "privileged partnership,"' a status that stops short of the full membership backed by her Social Democrat partners in the ruling coalition. Yet she has held the door open by saying accession talks must be conducted in a way that doesn't deny Turkey the eventual possibility of becoming a full member. Merkel even tried to blunt French President Nicholas Sarkozy's strong opposition to Turkey's EU membership and when Germany was term president of the EU she helped to keep Turkish EU relations on track.
European attacks 'inevitable' as al Qaeda influence spreads, say experts
European countries can expect more terrorist attacks in future because of continuing disaffection among Muslims and the low cost of producing bombs, according to international experts. Bob Ayers, associate fellow for international security at London-based thinktank, Chatham House, told Adnkronos International (AKI) on Friday, while police successfully foiled the planned terrorist attack in Germany last month, more attacks were inevitable. "The lessons are clear, this is not a problem confined to the United Kingdom or countries engaged in combat in Iraq, " Ayers told AKI. " Iraq is a rallying cry but it is not the cause. This is a terrible clash of cultures that transcends boundaries." Ayers was responding to an Adnkronos interview with terrorism expert Brian Michael Jenkins, who said western countries needed to do more to win the ideological battle against al-Qaeda.
The Parisian Intifada and “The Project”
Paris is burning, yet again. The Muslim immigrant “youths” in the banlieues have taken to the streets to expand a Western front in the global jihad. This time, however, instead of just burning cars and throwing rocks, this week they have taken up arms against French police. As the Associated Press reported on the violence around Paris late Tuesday, noting the escalation beyond the car-burning intifada of November 2005, such that even apologetic Associated Press reporters are forced to describe the present rioters as “urban guerillas”: Youths rampaged for a third night in the tough suburbs north of Paris and violence spread to a southern city late Tuesday as police struggled to contain rioters who have burned cars and buildings and — in an ominous turn — shot at officers. A senior police union official warned that "urban guerrillas" had joined the unrest, saying the violence was worse than during three weeks of rioting that raged around French cities in 2005, when firearms were rarely used. The urban warfare we are seeing in Paris, as well as the systematic violence by Muslim immigrants in other major cities throughout Europe, are in accord with the strategic planning documents drafted by the Muslim Brotherhood in recent decades in their hopes to establish a global caliphate through jihad.
Slovak police seize 'enriched uranium' in raid
Police have seized 2.2 lbs of radioactive material and arrested two people in Slovakia and one in Hungary, underlining fears in the West that terrorist groups are seeking to build a nuclear device. The Slovak news agency SITA and its counterpart in the Czech Republic , CTK, citing unconfirmed reports, said that the material was enriched uranium, an integral part of a nuclear bomb. Martin Korch, a Slovak police spokesman, would not confirm the exact nature of the material but said that it was worth $1 million (£483,000).
Dutch lawmaker planning film criticising the Quran
A Dutch conservative lawmaker said Wednesday he is making a film to highlight what he describes as "fascist" passages in the Quran, his latest high profile criticism of Islam. The interior and justice ministers said they were concerned, but believed they had no authority to prevent the lawmaker, Geert Wilders, from screening his film. Wilders plans to depict parts of the Quran he says are used as inspiration "by bad people to do bad things. "Less than 10 minutes long, the film is expected to air in late January. It will show "the intolerant and fascist character of the Quran," said Wilders, whose anti-Islam campaign helped his Freedom Party win nine seats in parliament in last year's election. In the past, Wilders has said that half the Quran should be torn up and compared it with Adolf Hitler's book "Mein Kampf." He has claimed the Netherlands is being swamped by a "tsunami" of Islamic immigrants.
A warning shot for Iran, via Syria
Until late October, the accepted explanation about the September 6 Israeli air strike in Syria, constructed from a series of press leaks from US officials, was that it was prompted by dramatic satellite intelligence that Syria was building a nuclear facility with help from North Korea. But new satellite evidence has discredited that narrative, suggesting a more plausible explanation for the strike: that it was a calculated effort by Israel and the United States to convince Iran. that its nuclear facilities could be attacked as well. The narrative promoted by neo-conservatives in the George W Bush administration began to unravel in late October with the release by a private company of a series of satellite images showing that the same square, multi-storey building that was hit by Israeli planes on September 6 had been present on the site four years earlier. Although the building appears to be somewhat more developed in the August 2007 image, it showed that the only major change at the site since September 2003 was what appears to be a pumping station on the Euphrates and a smaller secondary structure.
Iran: Action Shifts to the IAEA
As the IAEA considers the report of Director El-Baradei about Iran 's account of its nuclear program, the US is focusing on the report's statement that Iran has mastered the technology to operate 3,000 centrifuges. Depending on the efficiency of this operation, the implication is that Tehran might obtain enough fissile material to manufacture at least one nuclear weapon by 2009. If correct, this would be a significant acceleration on earlier Administration estimates that Iran would not be able to obtain a weapon before 2012 at the earliest. This new timetable is subject to a number of technical questions. US officials have not attached major importance to it. A National Intelligence Estimate that will include this topic has been delayed by internal disagreement inside the Administration. Nonetheless, conservative commentators continue to make the case for military action. As before, we do not believe they are winning many converts. The Administration is, however, receiving persistent statements of concern from the Arab Gulf states about the rise of Iranian power. An Intelligence Community official commented: “The issue of concern in the Gulf is that growing Iranian hegemony has eroded the regional balance of power.” We do not expect this aspect to prove decisive but it does provide another reason why Iran will remain high on the US foreign policy agenda.
Ahmadinejad Offers to Monitor U.S. Elections!
A day after a spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of the Interior told reporters that the government would not allow representatives from political parties to monitor proceedings at the Central Election Committee, President Ahmadinejad told a group of Basiji artists that he wished to monitor the U.S. elections to see whether “people would vote for them [Republicans] again or not.” Conservatives and hardliners have repeatedly accused their opponents of "treason" and "collaborating with the enemy" for requesting international observers to monitor Iran's elections. Ahmadinejad’s offer to monitor U.S. elections despite the ministry of interior's announcement that it was not allowing representatives from Iranian political parties and groups to monitor the actions of the Central Election Committee in the Iranian elections.
Navy Commander Highlights Iran's Military Power
A senior commander in Iran's naval force said the country's navy enjoys the required capabilities to respond to any possible military aggression against Iran's territorial waters with an iron feast. Speaking to FNA in the northern city of Rasht on Wednesday, commander of the fourth base of the Islamic Republic of Iran's naval force Seyed Mahmoud Moussavi said Iranian navy is needless of imports of military tools, equipments and weapons for defending the country against possible aggressions. "We have now entered a stage in which all armors, weapons and equipment of our battle units as well as surface and subsurface vessels and their required tools and equipment are manufactured by the brave men of this country," he added. The commander also said that the operational preparedness level of the Iranian naval units has improved astonishingly in comparison with what existed at the time of the Iraqi imposed war on Iran
Iran Hails New Domestically Manufactured Submarine
Iran’s navy said on Nov. 28 it had launched a new home-produced submarine, the first in a class named Ghadir, Tehran’s latest claim of military progress at a time of mounting tensions with the West. “This advanced submarine is equipped with the latest military and technological equipment,” navy chief Rear Adm. Habibollah Sayari was quoted as saying by state media. “It was built after 10 years of design work. Its capabilities are equal to those of foreign types.” No further details were given. State television pictures showed a submarine submerging and then resurfacing. It was not clear if the pictures were of Ghadir, which is named after a Muslim holiday. In March 2006, the navy deployed a submarine named Narhang (Whale), but the pictures broadcast by state media at the time showed it was a minisub. According to foreign military experts, Iran’s inventory of submarines patrolling Gulf waters already includes up to three Russian-built Kilo-class diesel submarines.
Iran-Saudi-Telephone Iranian president, Saudi king in telephone contact
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah discussed the latest regional and international developments by telephone Sunday evening. According to the media office of Iranian president, Ahmadinejad in his talks with the Saudi king recalled the fact that the Zionist regime has been constantly killing Palestinian women and children during the past 60 years and their ongoing atrocities are indicative of their insistence on committing crimes. President Ahmadinejad said the US government which is an accomplice to the Zionist crimes cannot play the role of the savior by hosting the Annapolis conference. He said he wished that the Saudi kingdom had not taken part in the conference.
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Predicts 'Collapse' of Israel
A day after their optimistic pledge to negotiate peace within a year, Israeli and Palestinian leaders faced the more sobering realities of Middle East politics Wednesday as Iran predicted Israel would "collapse" before any deal is reached. With President George W. Bush acting as host, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas held a symbolic negotiating session at the White House ahead of the first formal talks next month. "It was a hopeful beginning," Bush said following the meeting. "One thing I've assured both gentlemen is that the United States will be actively engaged in the process, that we will use our power to help you as you come up with the necessary decisions to lay out a Palestinian state that will live side by side in peace with Israel." The White House has been basking in the relatively warm reviews it has received from more than 40 nations -- including Saudi Arabia and Syria -- that participated in the one-day Annapolis peace conference on Tuesday. But it was the response of no participants that grabbed the attention of Bush, Abbas and Olmert on Wednesday.
Fortune-Tellers Popular in Islamic Iran
Clerics in the Islamic Republic of Iran frown on the practice, but Nazanin says she has more customers than ever wanting their fortunes told. Sitting behind a computer in her Tehran apartment, she predicts the future based on her knowledge of "jyotish" -- the science of light -- a practice related to astrology which she said is thought to have originated in ancient Persia. Some analysts say Iranians are turning to fortune-telling because of worries over their country's growing isolation in the world and surging prices at home. The fortune-tellers say their clients -- many of them women -- are seeking security. "Happiness is the gap between two miseries," said Nazanin, who asked not to be identified by her real name to avoid problems with religious authorities. "People from all walks of life come here to find that ray of light and find more hope for the future."
Saudis Release 1,500 Suspected Extremists
Saudi Arabia has released 1,500 prisoners suspected of belonging to a radical Islamic group after the prisoners underwent what was described as a five-week counseling program, according to Middle Eastern newspapers. Critics of the prisoner reform program worry it does nothing to seriously combat Islamic radicalism and releases dangerous extremists back into society. "This is the sort of failure to recognize the threat and deal with it seriously that has characterized the Saudis for years," said former White House counterterrorism chief Richard Clarke, an ABC News consultant.
Report: North Korea again helping Syria with chemical warheads
North Korea has resumed its assistance to Syria for the installation of chemical warheads on ballistic missiles, a Tokyo newspaper reported. Pyongyang has resumed the transfer of chemical weapons technology to Syria for the assembly of non conventional missile warheads, according Asian security sources. They said the effort focused on the installation and testing of chemical warheads for the Scud C and Scud D extended-range missiles. On Monday, the Tokyo-based Sankei daily reported that North Korea, after a break of four months, renewed the assistance to Damascus. In November 2007, Sankei said, a North Korean delegation briefed Syria's military on techniques to weaponise chemical agents in Scud C warheads.
Lebanon's Christians worried over vacuum in the presidency
Beirut - Lebanon's Christians fear a prolonged political vacuum while the post of president is filled will weaken their position in a sectarian system that reserves the job for them. Beirut - Lebanon's Christians fear a prolonged political vacuum while the post of president is filled will weaken their position in a sectarian system that reserves the job for them. The presidency has been empty since November 23 when Emile Lahoud's term ended. The post, reserved for a Maronite, has fallen victim to a power struggle between rival camps led by Sunni and Shi'ite Muslim groups, but also among Christians themselves. Split between the sides, Maronite leaders' deep rivalries have hindered efforts to reach an agreement on a new president. Parliament was due to convene on Friday in a sixth attempt at electing a new head of state.
Al-Qaeda, the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group and Jihad in North Africa
On November 3, 2007, a new video from al-Qaeda media production house as-Sahab was circulated on jihadi forums. Entitled “Unity of the Ranks,” the video featured senior al-Qaeda leaders Ayman al-Zawahiri and Abu Laith al-Libi. This video marked the announcement of the long anticipated merger between al-Qaeda and al-Jama’a al-Islamiyya al-Muqatila (The Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, or LIFG). Although the LIFG has been in existence since the mid-1990s and has long been loosely affiliated with al-Qaeda through various avenues, that the merger would be announced at this point highlights several key issues about al-Qaeda’s strategy and the state of jihad in North Africa. The LIFG merger calls into question al-Qaeda’s perception of its other affiliate in the region, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Born out of the merger between the Algerian Salafist Group for Call and Combat (GSPC) and al-Qaeda in September 2006, AQIM rose to prominence with several attacks throughout 2007, highlighted by the April 11 bombings in Algiers. Through its rhetoric, operations and indeed its chosen name, AQIM was meant to be al-Qaeda’s pan-Maghreb affiliate, bringing unity among the various jihadi groups and movements in North Africa, to say nothing of the North African networks in Europe.
Jailed Islamists Revise Jihad Concept
Egyptian Islamist Osama Ayyub, a political refugee in Germany and head of the Islamic Center in Munster, which advocates the Islamic Jihad ideology, has revealed to Asharq Al-Awsat that there have been a number of attempts to carry out [ideological] revisions by Islamic Jihad leaders in Egyptian prisons. He said that these attempts preceded the release of "The Rationalization of Jihad in Egypt and the World Today," which is a book written by Dr Fadl, who is also known as Sayyid Imam Abdulaziz al-Sharif. Dr Fadl is the founder of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad group and is Ayman al-Zawahiri's first mentor. Ayyub was born in 1966. He belongs to the Bani-Suwayf group and is the former religious head of Bayt al-Ansar in Peshawar. He described Islamic Jihad revision as "a turning point on the road toward ideological revision, which the Islamic movement is pursuing today." The revision document, which Al-Misri Al-Yawm is publishing, and of which Asharq Al-Awsat received a copy of its first part, stresses that "the performance of jihad for the sake of God has included several Islamic Shariaa violations, foremost among which is the killing of people on the basis of nationality, color of skin and hair, and sect." The document says that "these violations lead to nothing but God's resentment and indignation." It adds that "when a Muslim sets a goal for himself that exceeds his ability or that does not suit his situation then it is impermissible in Islam to use any illicit means to achieve this goal even if the goal itself is legitimate."
ISRAEL – PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY
Geologist's prophecy: Holy Land overdue for a major earthquake
Based on 400-year historical cycles at the pattern of recent tremors, the Middle East should be expecting a major earthquake in the near future, a geologist said. A leading Israeli geologist has assessed that the Middle East, particularly, the Levant, was ripe for a major earthquake. The geologist based his forecast on seismological data as well as historical patterns. "All of us in the region should be worried," Shmuel Marco, a geologist at Tel Aviv University, said. Seismologists have often warned of the prospect of a major earthquake in the Middle East. The Levant has undergone a series of serious tremors on the magnitude of five on the Richter Scale, but without causing significant damage.
Power Struggle Shakes P.A.
News reports have lately revealed that a power-sharing conflict between Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud ‘Abbas and his Western-backed Prime Minister Salam Faya’d is developing behind the scenes. After forming a caretaker government, which has been in place since Hamas took control of Gaza in June, Faya’d developed an agenda different from that of ‘Abbas and Fatah. According to Tala Okal, a prominent political analyst based in Gaza, Faya’d wants to exploit the current situation in order to build a new party ahead of the next elections. Fearing that such a new party would outpoll Fatah in the next elections, P.A. officials have warned ‘Abbas about Faya’d’s growing power and popularity, especially after restoring stability to the city of Nablus and securing more financial aid from donor countries. Deciding that talks with Israel were futile, Faya’d also became less involved in the recent discussions with the Israeli side. He realized that negotiations at this stage would be no more than brainstorming sessions leading nowhere, Okal explained. Meanwhile, Fatah officials are seeking the dismissal of either Fayyad or ‘Abbas in order to either dissolve the government or augment it by adding Fatah officials to the coalition so as to be able to stand up to the plans of Faya’d and his allies.
CONFRONTING IRAN: U.S. OPTIONS: Harnessing All Elements of U.S. Power
How can the United States prevent the emergence of an emboldened Iran with nuclear weapons? By harnessing all elements of U.S. power “into a strategy that focuses on three key concrete goals…counter proliferation, counterterrorism, and counterinsurgency,” says a new report from the American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC) and the McCormick Tribune Foundation. If successful, the strategy would prevent Iran from developing the nuclear capability on which it is making real progress, curtail its ability to sponsor terrorist groups that increasingly destabilize the region, and curb its meddling in Iraq, according to Confronting Iran: U.S. Options [i], the product of a working group co-chaired by McCormick's Brig. Gen David L. Grange (ret.) and AFPC's Ilan Berman (a member of the Committee on the Present Danger).
IRAN AND THE BOMB (#2): A Strategy of Economic Warfare
The Bush administration was wise last week to impose sanctions on Iran’s clerical army, the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), as well as on the IRGC’s feared Quds Force and several banks, businesses, and individuals, for their support for terrorism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. But, if the White House hopes to convince Tehran to drop its nuclear weapons programme, it must view the sanctions as just one piece of a larger strategy of economic warfare that skillfully exploits the vulnerabilities of the economy over which Iran’s radical regime presides. Under such a strategy, the Administration would impose an embargo on refined petroleum products, target the full complement of families and organizations that wield vast control over Iran’s economy, block the foreign investment on which Iran’s economy is heavily dependent, and force U.S. allies to choose between trade with America and with Iran.
U.S. military: No evidence Iran has stopped shipping explosives to Iraq
The U.S. military reported that Iran has maintained its support for insurgency strikes around Baghdad despite assurances to the contrary. "I have not seen those attacks abate, and I have not seen any indication that they intend to stop," U.S. Army Col. Don Farris, commander of U.S. forces in the northern Baghdad area, said. Officials said the U.S. military has assessed that Iran, despite its pledge to Washington, continued to ship explosively-formed projectiles to Shi'ite militias in southern and central Iran. They said the militias used EFPs in strikes against U.S. and Iraqi forces.
Jihad in India
Interview with Moorthy Muthuswamy, an expert on terrorism in India . He grew up in India , where he had firsthand experience with political Islam and jihad. He moved to America in 1984 to pursue graduate studies. In 1992, he received a doctorate in nuclear physics from Stony Brook University , New York . Since 1999 he has extensively published ideas on neutralizing political Islam's terror war as it is imposed on unbelievers. He is the author of the new book, The Art of War on Terror: Triumphing over Political Islam and the Axis of Jihad.
THE AFTERMOUTH OF ANNAPOLIS PEACE CONFERENCE
Fear of Iran is motivator for Middle East peace conference
The most important player in the push for Middle East peace that President Bush launches with a high-stakes conference next week may be one that's not on his long list of invited guests. For varying reasons, Iran is a force driving the United States, Israel, the Palestinians and their Arab backers to seek a deal now. Many other motives come into play, but the growing influence and uncertain aims of Tehran provide rare unity of purpose among states that are key to solving the six-decade Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The United States has asked nearly 50 nations and organizations to attend next week's coming-out party for what U.S. diplomat’s say will be serious, continuing set of negotiations to establish an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel. Israeli and Palestinian leaders jumped out ahead of their U.S. hosts by committing themselves to such bargaining even before the three-day session in Washington and Annapolis, Md., had begun. The Annapolis conference, as the Bush administration is calling it, now serves largely as a platform for those who could help or hurt the peace effort to have their say.
IA-Forum Interview: Meir Javedanfar on Annapolis peace conference
According to its American hosts, the Middle East meeting aims to build international support for a Palestinian state. What can realistically be accomplished at the peace conference? Mr. Meir Javedanfar: The most realistic expectation we could have is that this peace conference leads to other meetings between Israel and the PLO. Furthermore, the participation of wide range of Arab states, including Syria, shows that more countries from the region want to become stakeholders in the diplomatic process. This provides more legitimacy to the peace process in the Arab world. It could also lead to more support for PLO leader Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Olmert's standing at home; something which at a later stage could assist them to make the necessary concessions, if and when possible. This is the most realistic scenario for now. Unfortunately, a Palestinian state can not be founded and supported without the inclusion of Gaza, which is under the control of Hamas. The radical organization's anti peace policies have led to its isolation in the international community. Nevertheless, as long as they are the democratically elected representatives of Palestinians, and they purposely decide to stay away from the peace process, then any peace deal reached with Mahmoud Abbas, means it is a deal reached with the PLO only, and not with all Palestinians. This produces a sever handicap for the efforts needed to conclude a comprehensive peace deal.
Iran rebukes Saudi over Mideast conference
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told Saudi King Abdullah that he "wished" the kingdom was not taking part in a US-hosted conference for peace in the Middle East, state media reported Monday. "I wish the name of Saudi Arabia was not among those attending the Annapolis conference," Ahmadinejad was quoted as telling Abdullah in a telephone conversation late Sunday, according to the state-run IRNA agency. "Arab countries should be watchful in the face of the plots and deception of the Zionist enemy," he added."The US government, which is an accomplice to Zionist crimes, cannot play the role of saviour by hosting the Annapolis conference," he continued.
Analysis: Abbas won't be able to impose any deal on Gaza
Israel is expecting any agreement with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas at the Annapolis peace conference or afterwards to include not only the West Bank, but the entire Gaza Strip, which has been under the full control of Hamas since June. How will Abbas be able to implement any agreement in the Gaza Strip when he hardly has control over the West Bank? There are three ways for Abbas and his Fatah faction to regain control over the Gaza Strip. One way is if the public there revolts against Hamas and overthrows the government of Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh. The second is if Hamas voluntarily relinquishes control over the Gaza Strip and invites Fatah back to power. The third way is to remove Hamas from power by force - something that Abbas's security forces and Fatah loyalists don't seem to be capable of doing, at least not in the short term. And since Abbas does not have the power to regain control over the Gaza Strip, the question is: What if Israel does the job for him?
Behind Annapolis and Beyond...
The Middle East peace parley, set to take place in Annapolis, Maryland next week, still does not have a set agenda. As Israel and the Palestinians wrangle over pre-conditions for going to the conference, to-date Arab leaders have not made a decision whether they will attend the meeting. The acceptance of invitations by members of the Arab League, who will be meeting later this week, is said to be a key factor in the ultimate success of Annapolis. While preparations for the Annapolis meeting get underway in the United States, some officials in Israel say the focus right now should not be on the diplomatic track between Israel and the Palestinians. According to Israeli Brigadier General (Res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, a former senior intelligence officer, the upcoming Annapolis meeting is “escapism.” He concludes, “The main problem we are facing right now is what is going to happen with Iran.” He indicates that the crucial factor is not the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, but, whether Western nations are going to threaten Iran with military action.
European Press Review: Pressure Alone Won't Bring Peace
Europe's press cautiously welcomed the peace plan laid out in Annapolis this week. Israelis and Palestinians have pledged to forge peace within a year, but major European newspapers wondered if it will be possible . The Annapolis peace summit, held on the invitation of US President George W. Bush, "can be seen as a break-though that after a long period of one-sided steps and coincidental contact," wrote Volksrant on Thursday, Nov. 29, from The Hague. However, "it's very important that the Americans […] keep the pressure down," the Dutch paper continued. "It's the Israelis and the Palestinians that have to make peace."
Miracle Needed' to Reach Agreement
Despite the seemingly positive outcome of the Annapolis summit, it will take a miracle for Israelis and Palestinians to reach an agreement and end the conflict, a former Israeli negotiator said. Shlomo Ben Ami, a former Israeli foreign minister with vast experience in peace talks with Palestinians, said Tuesday’s summit in Annapolis, Maryland was just the beginning of a process in dealing with core issues. “So far, they have only agreed that they need to agree,” Ben Ami told The Media Line. “They haven’t addressed any past issues.” A joint Palestinian-Israeli statement, completed just minutes before it was presented by United States President George W. Bush, set forth the parties’ pledge to begin “vigorous, ongoing and continuous” negotiations under American oversight, Bush said, with the goal of creating a Palestinians state by the end of 2008. A steering committee will oversee the work of as many as 14 teams charged with tackling specific issues. The first round of peace talks will be on December 12, and the two sides will continue to meet every two weeks after that. The outline of the process will be the Road Map for peace.
Livni to Arabs at summit: Stop treating me like a pariah
"Stop treating me as a pariah," Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni told Arab delegates at the Annapolis conference on Tuesday, according to The Washington Post. Livni and US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice spoke to the summit's attendees in a closed-door session following the televised addresses by American, Israeli and Palestinian leaders. Many of these represented Arab nations that do not have diplomatic relations with Israel. "Why doesn't anyone want to shake my hand?" she asked in a dramatic address to the assembled representatives. "Why doesn't anyone want to be seen speaking to me?" Dutch European Affairs Minister Frans Timmermans, who gave the paper details of the meeting, said the Arab delegates "shun her like she is Count Dracula's younger sister."
Arabs to Iran: Don’t Interfere With Our Affairs
A Persian proverb says: “A man was not allowed enter a village, he was insisting to go to the house of the mayor”. This is exactly the attitude of the Islamic Republic of Iran with the Arab-Israeli conflict. In statements, both the Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenehei and his fanatic President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have rejected the Middle East Peace Conference that was inaugurated on 26 November in Annapolis, in the State of Maryland, near Washington D.C, as “resembling to autumn leaves” and assured that it would bring “nothing to the Palestinians, but Arab nations recognising the Jewish State”. Iran is not invited to the meeting, at which the majority of the Arab countries, including the most important and influential of them, like Egypt, Saudi Arabia , Jordan and even Syria are taking part, alongside the two main actors, Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
Israelis and Palestinians Pessimistic on Chances of Peace
The participants in the Annapolis conference could only feel victorious for one evening -- then the disillusion set in. In a rare show of unity, Israeli and Arab newspapers have thrashed out at their political leaders. Israel 's newspaper kiosks were decked out in white and blue, something usually reserved for Independence Day. But even if Israel 's newspapers were also flying the country's colors on Wednesday, hardly any were in the mood for celebration one day after the Middle East conference concluded in Annapolis). Sure, Yediot Ahronot, Israel 's widest circulation daily, spoke of a "new beginning" -- but its analysis immediately crushed any hopes. "Anyone unfamiliar with the Middle East would be forgiven for thinking that Tuesday's ceremonies were marking the signing of a permanent peace," wrote Nahum Barnea, one of Israel 's best-known commentators. The opposite is true. According to Barnea, nothing less than "a miracle would be required" for a Palestinian state to be brought into being by the end of 2008. There are too many difficulties to be cleared out of the way before this kind of "express peace" would be realistic.
IRAN’S PLAN’S TO UNLEASH HEZBOLLAH
Hezbollah will avenge Iran strike
Terrorist group Hezbollah is poised to launch bloody reprisals in Britain for any Western attack on Iran, a former intelligence chief has warned. Richard Kemp, who was senior adviser on terrorism to Tony Blair, said the Iranian-backed group had established sleeper cells in this country to carry out revenge attacks. He said: “Hezbollah cells are operating in this country, in London. The big question is how capable Hezbollah groups are in Europe. “What I can say is that Hezbollah is probably the world’s most effective terrorist organisation, and that includes Al Qaeda.” Hezbollah’s record of terrorism in the Middle East stretches back 25 years. Last year its rocket attacks on Israel sparked a full-scale war between Israel and Lebanon, where its political arm holds seats in government.
Iran Hints at Seeking Hezbollah Help if Attacked by U.S.
Tehran has said it will never initiate any attack but has also warned it will strike back with crushing force if the United States launches an assault. Iranian military officials have publicly threatened to hit U.S. bases in Iraq, Afghanistan and on the Arabian Peninsula with their missiles if Washington attacks. "Iran will never launch an attack but if Iran is attacked we will respond with all our force against aggressors," Iran's Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar was quoted as saying. The commander of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Ali Jarari echoed that, adding that Tehran had "other capabilities that we believe it is our right to use throughout the region and also around the world." In remarks on state-owned Press TV, he said "we think there is a possibility of air campaign against a number of special sites ... but if our enemies are wise, they will never even do that." Without elaborating, he said that with the "same strategies" used by Hizbullah in the group's summer war with Israel last year "we can nullify their (U.S.) military superiority."
If Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Strike Back: The Case of Iraq
The recent move by the U.S. government to designate Iran’s most powerful military unit, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as a terrorist organization reflects a tougher U.S. stance towards Tehran in response to its controversial nuclear program and military reach in the Middle East. Though largely aimed at weakening the IRGC’s global business operations and financial network, the new sanctions are the most aggressive form of U.S. policy in confronting Iran’s growing influence in Iraq, where U.S. military officials accuse the Guard of supplying weapons and military expertise to Shiite militias (AP, September 24). With the IRGC as the first national military organization sanctioned by the United States, Washington and Tehran have now moved another step closer to a possible military showdown. In light of the unfolding crisis, it remains unclear what could happen in a military conflict between Iran and the United States. A basic scenario involves a comprehensive U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, naval forces, information and technology support system (especially those linked to nuclear sites in Bushehr, Isfahan and Tehran) and finally the bombing of IRGC ground force units stationed near the strategic cities of Abadan, Ahvaz, Chah Bahar, Dezful, Hamadan, Khoramshahr and Mashahd. The United States, possibly with the help of Israel, could help stave off Iranian retaliation by destroying Iran’s command air base where Iranian fighter jets are kept on daily readiness against potential attacks by American forces.
If Iran's Guards strike back...
The recent move by the US government to designate Iran's most powerful military unit, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), as a terrorist organization reflects a tougher US stance towards Tehran in response to its controversial nuclear programme and military reach in the Middle East. Though largely aimed at weakening the IRGC's global business operations and financial network, the new sanctions are the most aggressive form of US policy in confronting Iran's growing influence in Iraq, where US military officials accuse the IRGC of supplying weapons and military expertise to Shi'ite militias.
Iran Builds New Missile with Range of 2,000 kms
Iran has built a new missile able to hit targets 2,000 km (1,250 miles) away, the Iranian defence minister said on Tuesday, matching the range of another missile in the Islamic Republic's arsenal, the Shabab-3. Defence Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar, whose comments were carried by Fars News Agency, did not say how the new weapon differed from the Shahab-3, which could hit Israel and has previously been viewed as Iran's longest range missile. "The construction of the Ashoura missile, with the range of 2,000 km (1,250 miles), is among the accomplishments of the Defence Ministry," the minister told a gathering of the Basij religious militia, which is holding manoeuvres this week. He also said a new Iranian-built submarine would be delivered to the navy on Wednesday. The minister did not give further details about either of the two new military items. Although Iran regularly says it has made major advances in its weaponry, Western experts say it rarely gives enough detail to confirm the capabilities. Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayari had said on Saturday his force would take delivery of a new submarine this week ahead of military manoeuvres planned for February in the Strait of Hormuz, the entrance to the strategic Gulf waterway.
By Simon Barrett
